European Pro League Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rest Farmersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HULIGANI
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 20 games
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 15 games
Dark Willow
OneJey · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
Luna
RAMZES666 · 13 games
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 12 games
Techies
OneJey · 12 games
Rest Farmers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
457 picks · 202 bans
Centaur Warrunner
447 picks · 673 bans
Batrider
442 picks · 840 bans
Tiny
427 picks · 591 bans
Rubick
410 picks · 179 bans
Pangolier
389 picks · 687 bans
Mars
388 picks · 626 bans
Techies
386 picks · 299 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total56% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:6
HULIGANI 56%Rest Farmers 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 31:01.
Game 2prediction correct36:15
HULIGANI 56%Rest Farmers 44%
The model gave 56% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 40:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 56%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2