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DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 36 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 36 games
56%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
61%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 32 games
72%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 30 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 28 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
slimeyao · 27 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 27 games
56%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
raregods · 46 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Htrd · 43 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 36 games
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 25 games
84%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Htrd · 24 games
54%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 23 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
raregods · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
562 picks · 649 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 675 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
446 picks · 529 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
446 picks · 161 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
420 picks · 202 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 521 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 497 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:13
HULIGANI 62%Rune Eaters 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
43% · 150 games52% · 370 games
Ember SpiritEthereal
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
52% · 228 games46% · 78 games
ViperAnkou
Viper
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knighterase
46% · 302 games50% · 133 games
Skywrath Magemonodrama
Skywrath Mage
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
61% · 243 games47% · 582 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Ringmaster
Ringmasterslimeyao
50% · 240 games
Game 2prediction missed7:20
HULIGANI 61%Rune Eaters 39%
The model gave 61% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherv1olent-
52% · 25 games48% · 51 game
ViperEthereal
Viper
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiriterase
53% · 212 games45% · 230 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
48% · 116 games54% · 223 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
50% · 224 games52% · 347 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
49% · 274 games
Game 3prediction missed17:26
HULIGANI 62%Rune Eaters 38%
The model gave 62% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawBb3px
51% · 189 games47% · 182 games
Shadow FiendEthereal
Shadow Fiend
Abaddon
Abaddonv1olent-
49% · 199 games49% · 476 games
TinyAnkou
Tiny
Slardar
Slardarerase
54% · 175 games56% · 239 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
Tusk
Tuskslimeyao
48% · 354 games49% · 362 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
Warlock
WarlockRESPECT
47% · 342 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 72%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3