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The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SIBE Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 24 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panto · 20 games
60%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
OneJey · 19 games
37%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
47%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 17 games
47%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
re1bl · 14 games
64%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%

SIBE Team

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 30 games
33%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
sunset · 21 game
43%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
SOhY · 16 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
nesfeer · 16 games
25%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ряф^^ · 15 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
ряф^^ · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
ряф^^ · 14 games
57%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
SOhY · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
445 picks · 213 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 706 bans
52%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
410 picks · 574 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
405 picks · 423 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
368 picks · 648 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
361 picks · 167 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
347 picks · 914 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
340 picks · 668 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total57% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:14
HULIGANI 52%SIBE Team 48%
The model gave 52% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 25:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightv1olent-
53% · 39 games43% · 10 games
Spectreselfhate
Spectre
Windranger
Windrangerre1bl
50% · 56 games59% · 40 games
Death Prophetряф^^
Death Prophet
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBb3px
45% · 56 games46% · 95 games
Dark Willowsunset
Dark Willow
Warlock
WarlockPanto
43% · 28 games54% · 47 games
Elder TitanSOhY
Elder Titan
Pudge
PudgeOneJey
63% · 13 games
Game 2prediction missed20:36
HULIGANI 55%SIBE Team 45%
The model gave 55% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by SIBE Team in 34:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendre1bl
33% · 10 games53% · 101 game
Linaряф^^
Lina
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
45% · 135 games50% · 84 games
Invokerselfhate
Invoker
Enigma
EnigmaBb3px
44% · 44 games50% · 16 games
JakiroSOhY
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixPanto
51% · 114 games54% · 247 games
Shadow Demonsunset
Shadow Demon
Tiny
TinyOneJey
52% · 145 games
Game 3prediction correct41:15
HULIGANI 54%SIBE Team 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 32:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendv1olent-
60% · 11 games54% · 142 games
Dragon Knightряф^^
Dragon Knight
Void Spirit
Void Spiritre1bl
41% · 47 games50% · 55 games
Invokerselfhate
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
57% · 203 games49% · 170 games
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Hoodwink
HoodwinkOneJey
45% · 97 games36% · 7 games
JakiroSOhY
Jakiro
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiPanto
50% · 16 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 57%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3