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European Pro League Season 30 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 0:2
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 22 games
59%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 19 games
74%
Doom
Doomsignature
v1olent- · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
v1olent- · 15 games
53%
Warlock
Warlock
aik · 14 games
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
RESPECT · 13 games
54%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
erase · 13 games
77%

Team Lynx

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
StoneBank · 6 games
17%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
7jesu · 5 games
60%
Slardar
Slardar
StoneBank · 5 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
StoneBank · 4 games
0%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
fortniteMan · 4 games
75%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
7jesu · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
312 picks · 202 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
296 picks · 666 bans
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
265 picks · 119 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
257 picks · 255 bans
45%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
254 picks · 600 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 683 bans
55%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
249 picks · 510 bans
58%
Marci
Marci
241 picks · 508 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 29%
Hero pool strength57% HULIGANI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
HULIGANI 75%Team Lynx 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
61% · 47 games48% · 201 game
Morphling7jesu
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierBb3px
47% · 212 games46% · 148 games
Timbersawmellojul
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
57% · 119 games43% · 146 games
MarsfortniteMan
Mars
Chen
ChenRESPECT
56% · 63 games
Disruptor
Disruptorslimeyao
51% · 54 games
Game 2prediction missed16:23
HULIGANI 74%Team Lynx 26%
The model gave 74% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenv1olent-
56% · 101 game43% · 216 games
Terrorblade7jesu
Terrorblade
Lycan
LycanBb3px
60% · 65 games45% · 221 game
Puckmellojul
Puck
Sand King
Sand Kingerase
56% · 158 games44% · 113 games
Centaur WarrunnerfortniteMan
Centaur Warrunner
Chen
ChenRESPECT
60% · 66 games
Clockwerk
Clockwerkslimeyao
49% · 160 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2