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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIloss 1:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Bb3px · 22 games
55%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panto · 17 games
59%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
OneJey · 17 games
35%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
50%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
re1bl · 16 games
44%
Luna
Luna
RAMZES666 · 15 games
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OneJey · 13 games
38%
Sven
Svensignature
RAMZES666 · 13 games
69%

Yellow Submarine

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
emptiness · 29 games
59%
Techies
Techies
rue · 28 games
46%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
asdekor_r · 21 game
38%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
erase · 21 game
48%
Luna
Luna
Satanic · 20 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
emptiness · 18 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
rue · 18 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
474 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 666 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
412 picks · 380 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
411 picks · 594 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
410 picks · 735 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
372 picks · 160 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
355 picks · 756 bans
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
339 picks · 957 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:28
HULIGANI 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightre1bl
51% · 197 games50% · 144 games
WindrangerSatanic
Windranger
Muerta
Muertav1olent-
51% · 75 games52% · 222 games
Timbersawerase
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarBb3px
55% · 98 games48% · 253 games
Centaur Warrunnerkasane
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickOneJey
43% · 329 games50% · 156 games
Clockwerkasdekor_r
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPanto
50% · 76 games
Game 2prediction missed31:25
HULIGANI 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 41:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordv1olent-
51% · 66 games54% · 34 games
UrsaSatanic
Ursa
Lina
Linare1bl
41% · 62 games52% · 161 game
Primal Beasterase
Primal Beast
Axe
AxeBb3px
41% · 38 games52% · 92 games
Slardarkasane
Slardar
Weaver
WeaverOneJey
52% · 90 games49% · 149 games
Enchantressasdekor_r
Enchantress
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenPanto
56% · 180 games
Game 3prediction missed10:26
HULIGANI 53%Yellow Submarine 47%
The model gave 53% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
Tinyv1olent-
49% · 188 games51% · 216 games
SvenSatanic
Sven
Leshrac
Leshracre1bl
49% · 114 games52% · 61 game
Lycankasane
Lycan
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
54% · 201 game52% · 179 games
Storm Spiriterase
Storm Spirit
Pugna
PugnaPanto
48% · 114 games46% · 255 games
Crystal Maidenasdekor_r
Crystal Maiden
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeOneJey
50% · 94 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 52%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3