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CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
erase · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
slimeyao · 21 game
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
v1olent- · 19 games
58%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
slimeyao · 18 games
56%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 18 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
RESPECT · 17 games
47%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RESPECT · 16 games
44%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Disruptor
Disruptoroften banned
Se · 32 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
yamich · 30 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 29 games
66%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 23 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
45%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 22 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
691 picks · 334 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
573 picks · 607 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
468 picks · 248 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
393 picks · 1132 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 668 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
390 picks · 249 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
363 picks · 366 bans
51%
Pugna
Pugna
338 picks · 386 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 46%
Hero pool strength50% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:11
HULIGANI 49%Zero Tenacity 51%
The model gave 51% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 43:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightv1olent-
52% · 356 games52% · 302 games
GyrocopterKami
Gyrocopter
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Propheterase
57% · 247 games44% · 65 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Naga Siren
Naga SirenRESPECT
57% · 139 games48% · 261 game
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsCorrupted
45% · 205 games49% · 418 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Disruptor
Disruptorslimeyao
48% · 217 games49% · 118 games
DazzleSe
Dazzle
Game 2prediction missed34:28
HULIGANI 47%Zero Tenacity 53%
The model gave 53% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 46:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezv1olent-
43% · 19 games51% · 66 games
Faceless VoidKami
Faceless Void
Void Spirit
Void Spiriterase
53% · 285 games47% · 326 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Bristleback
BristlebackCorrupted
54% · 349 games48% · 158 games
DawnbreakerNefrit
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
SnapfireRESPECT
53% · 303 games45% · 245 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterslimeyao
49% · 109 games50% · 270 games
TuskdEsire
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2