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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 48 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 44 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
RESPECT · 39 games
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
slimeyao · 38 games
61%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 33 games
67%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
erase · 32 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
erase · 30 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 42 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 40 games
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 38 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 36 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 36 games
67%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 33 games
64%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
50%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
614 picks · 813 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 568 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 398 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
439 picks · 297 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
397 picks · 1035 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 675 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 597 bans
46%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
357 picks · 943 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 59%
Hero pool strength51% HULIGANI
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total59% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:23
HULIGANI 43%Zero Tenacity 57%
The model gave 57% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 37:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinssnovv1
53% · 219 games47% · 189 games
MuertaKami
Muerta
Axe
AxeCorrupted
51% · 204 games52% · 343 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMirage
50% · 202 games50% · 339 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
44% · 195 games53% · 77 games
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansayuw
51% · 255 games50% · 127 games
DazzleMoOz
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct5:25
HULIGANI 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 19:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerMirage
52% · 110 games48% · 163 games
KezKami
Kez
Windranger
Windrangerssnovv1
52% · 217 games46% · 210 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Mars
MarsCorrupted
50% · 342 games45% · 220 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixRESPECT
51% · 176 games49% · 165 games
DazzleMoOz
Dazzle
Ringmaster
Ringmastersayuw
50% · 247 games56% · 334 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed39:30
HULIGANI 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 50:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerssnovv1
49% · 163 games52% · 302 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
56% · 437 games54% · 135 games
HuskarWorick
Huskar
Slardar
SlardarCorrupted
49% · 311 games51% · 507 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Phoenix
Phoenixsayuw
46% · 272 games44% · 602 games
WarlockMoOz
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroRESPECT
46% · 756 games51% · 393 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 59%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3