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The International 2026. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 39 games
59%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Bb3px · 38 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
sayuw · 36 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirage · 35 games
57%
Tiny
Tiny
erase · 32 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Mirage · 31 game
77%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
RESPECT · 30 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
sayuw · 30 games
57%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 34 games
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 32 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 32 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 31 game
58%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
MoOz · 27 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
42%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
MoOz · 26 games
69%
Tiny
Tiny
Worick · 26 games
42%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
616 picks · 400 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 289 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 581 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
466 picks · 388 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
425 picks · 596 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
342 picks · 969 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
339 picks · 284 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 502 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% HULIGANI
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total60% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:19
HULIGANI 59%Zero Tenacity 41%
The model gave 59% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 42:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerMirage
56% · 117 games44% · 44 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Alchemist
Alchemistssnovv1
61% · 117 games37% · 69 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
61% · 280 games43% · 187 games
BeastmasterMikSa`
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsayuw
52% · 67 games43% · 341 game
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Bane
BaneRESPECT
58% · 175 games42% · 115 games
SilencerMoOz
Silencer
Game 2prediction missed8:26
HULIGANI 54%Zero Tenacity 46%
The model gave 54% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 48:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetssnovv1
50% · 148 games51% · 44 games
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
Drow Ranger
Zeus
ZeusMirage
36% · 21 game57% · 263 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Batrider
BatriderCorrupted
50% · 337 games52% · 99 games
LargoMikSa`
Largo
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsayuw
38% · 184 games49% · 198 games
PhoenixMoOz
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
53% · 204 games55% · 290 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct41:24
HULIGANI 57%Zero Tenacity 43%
The model gave 57% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectressnovv1
48% · 13 games59% · 122 games
Nature's ProphetSmiling Knight
Nature's Prophet
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
49% · 326 games50% · 142 games
SnapfireWorick
Snapfire
Axe
AxeCorrupted
44% · 228 games52% · 152 games
UnderlordMikSa`
Underlord
Mirana
Miranasayuw
52% · 34 games46% · 160 games
RingmasterdEsire
Ringmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorRESPECT
58% · 106 games45% · 131 game
ClockwerkMoOz
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 60%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3