The International 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionLCLa Correntadaloss 0:1
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Apex Genesiswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
La Correntada
No games played over 6 months.
Apex Genesis
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
YamSun · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Speeed · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
482 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
453 picks · 746 bans
Centaur Warrunner
432 picks · 627 bans
Gyrocopter
429 picks · 418 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 740 bans
Rubick
380 picks · 165 bans
Dragon Knight
353 picks · 1021 bans
Pangolier
348 picks · 726 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Apex Genesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total81% Apex Genesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
La Correntada 19%Apex Genesis 81%
The model gave 81% on Apex Genesis — the game was taken by Apex Genesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteApex Genesis · 81%
Series resultApex Genesis 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1