IESF World Esports Championship 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Лаосwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Колумбияloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Лаос
Leshracoften banned
Nevermine · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Marcioften banned
Beebie · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Nevermine · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Tusk
Beebie · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Колумбия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
372 picks · 593 bans
Tiny
326 picks · 228 bans
Undying
304 picks · 540 bans
Primal Beast
253 picks · 486 bans
Pangolier
249 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
243 picks · 151 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 282 bans
Enigma
207 picks · 714 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Лаос
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Лаос
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:10
Лаос 67%Колумбия 33%
The model gave 67% on Лаос — the game was taken by Лаос in 29:02.
Game 2prediction correct55:33
Лаос 67%Колумбия 33%
The model gave 67% on Лаос — the game was taken by Лаос in 41:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteЛаос · 67%
Series resultЛаос 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2