Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EgoBoyswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Latam Defenders
Mirana
Moonlight · 10 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
Weaversignature
Cucahook · 6 games
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
Juggernautoften banned
Cucahook · 5 games
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
410 picks · 998 bans
Mars
349 picks · 576 bans
Void Spirit
344 picks · 527 bans
Grimstroke
341 picks · 351 bans
Lion
327 picks · 178 bans
Death Prophet
323 picks · 702 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 222 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% EgoBoys
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:36
Latam Defenders 37%EgoBoys 63%
The model gave 63% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 32:33.
Game 2prediction correct40:59
Latam Defenders 37%EgoBoys 63%
The model gave 63% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 47:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 63%
Series resultEgoBoys 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2