Lava vs Balrogs — prediction DPC2S1ЮАЗО · Dota 2

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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3

result vs prediction

Lavaloss 0:2

series probability

61%39%

probability at match start · final 0:2

Balrogswin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

No games played over 6 months.

Balrogs

Rubick

Demon · 4 games

75%

Crystal Maiden

ShakaLord · 2 games

100%

Shadow Fiendoften banned

Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games

100%

Venomanceroften banned

drakesh1t · 2 games

100%

Batrideroften banned

Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game

100%

Centaur Warrunner

drakesh1t · 1 game

100%

Disruptor

ShakaLord · 1 game

100%

Ember Spiritoften banned

Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

353 picks · 323 bans

49%

Tusk

298 picks · 280 bans

58%

Marci

273 picks · 516 bans

55%

Undying

250 picks · 459 bans

52%

Pangolier

243 picks · 540 bans

53%

Primal Beast

229 picks · 576 bans

53%

Shadow Fiend

218 picks · 333 bans

54%

Snapfire

211 picks · 109 bans

48%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%

Hero pool strength58% Balrogs

Head-to-head1 – 0

Model total61% Lava

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed14:23

Lava 55%Balrogs 45%

The model gave 55% on Lava — the game was taken by Balrogs in 26:03.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo