DreamLeague Season 25. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Infamouswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Phoenix
Pamplona · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Pamplona · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
555k · 2 games
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Adrx · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 2 games
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
DM · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Sven
DM · 1 game
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
387 picks · 491 bans
Muerta
377 picks · 296 bans
Tusk
357 picks · 383 bans
Pangolier
338 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
323 picks · 381 bans
Beastmaster
316 picks · 722 bans
Lion
312 picks · 153 bans
Gyrocopter
291 picks · 400 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Lava
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total50% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
Lava 50%Infamous 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by Lava in 1:00:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritÑengoflow KELOKE
LinaS1RENM
Rubick555k
MedusaDM
Dark WillowPamplona
KunkkaHermit
57% · 13 games
AbaddonJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Lava 50%Infamous 50%
The model gave 50% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 41:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerÑengoflow KELOKE
MagnusDM
Jakiro555k
BeastmasterHermit
Dark WillowPamplona
Ember SpiritS1RENM
53% · 30 games
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
Game 3prediction correct16:35
Lava 48%Infamous 52%
The model gave 52% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 45:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerÑengoflow KELOKE
UrsaDM
SnapfirePamplona
Queen of PainS1RENM
Ogre Magi555k
BeastmasterHermit
56% · 180 games
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 50%
Series resultInfamous 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3