Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:1series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:1
King Of Kingsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
King Of Kings
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
437 picks · 273 bans
Queen of Pain
391 picks · 498 bans
Weaver
353 picks · 502 bans
Mars
343 picks · 487 bans
Kunkka
288 picks · 469 bans
Wraith King
249 picks · 331 bans
Spirit Breaker
247 picks · 459 bans
Death Prophet
241 picks · 332 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 21%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:20
Lava 65%King Of Kings 35%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 23:51.
Game 2prediction missed23:22
Lava 65%King Of Kings 35%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 41:46.
Game 3prediction missed28:4
Lava 65%King Of Kings 35%
The model gave 65% on Lava — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 25:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 65%
Series resultLava 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3