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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 9 games
56%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
100%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 4 games
75%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
payk · 4 games
75%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 20 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
989 picks · 693 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 464 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
581 picks · 934 bans
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
546 picks · 407 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
530 picks · 411 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 369 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
518 picks · 1209 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
501 picks · 382 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total55% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:30
Lava 50%Mad Kings 50%
The model gave 50% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 49:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenpayk
56% · 53 games50% · 117 games
Monkey KingDaaD-
Monkey King
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdrakeel
54% · 250 games50% · 26 games
Void SpiritPiPi
Void Spirit
Disruptor
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
50% · 201 game45% · 124 games
Dragon KnightArzenT
Dragon Knight
44% · 237 games
SnapfireGenek
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed30:7
Lava 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Lava in 24:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerpayk
50% · 82 games49% · 80 games
KunkkaPiPi
Kunkka
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdrakeel
50% · 159 games53% · 108 games
Monkey KingDaaD-
Monkey King
Lich
LichJimmyCoff666
52% · 30 games44% · 45 games
WeaverArzenT
Weaver
50% · 38 games
Earth SpiritGenek
Earth Spirit
Game 3prediction correct9:33
Lava 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 22:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenpayk
47% · 60 games40% · 157 games
Ember SpiritPiPi
Ember Spirit
Beastmaster
Beastmasterdrakeel
53% · 301 game59% · 45 games
SlarkDaaD-
Slark
Chen
ChenJimmyCoff666
61% · 66 games51% · 55 games
Night StalkerArzenT
Night Stalker
42% · 170 games
SnapfireGenek
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 55%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3