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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
20%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
payk · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
payk · 5 games
80%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
100%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%

Mad Kings

Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 21 game
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
PiPi · 12 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Vitaly · 11 games
64%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Elmisho · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Genek · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
DaaD- · 9 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 9 games
33%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Michael · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
497 picks · 538 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
452 picks · 225 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 692 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 625 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
338 picks · 711 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
334 picks · 341 bans
47%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
330 picks · 781 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
319 picks · 520 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Lava
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:5
Lava 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Lava in 31:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorpayk
46% · 43 games51% · 35 games
LeshracPiPi
Leshrac
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerJimmyCoff666
51% · 51 game47% · 24 games
Drow RangerAdrx
Drow Ranger
55% · 21 game
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
55% · 14 games
Earth SpiritGenek
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct19:27
Lava 45%Mad Kings 55%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 46:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonpayk
40% · 63 games38% · 59 games
BloodseekerAdrx
Bloodseeker
Batrider
BatriderJimmyCoff666
52% · 244 games58% · 61 game
Monkey KingPiPi
Monkey King
61% · 99 games
BeastmasterOscar
Beastmaster
52% · 88 games
MiranaGenek
Mirana
Game 3prediction correct21:35
Lava 48%Mad Kings 52%
The model gave 52% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 58:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpayk
49% · 54 games50% · 14 games
GyrocopterAdrx
Gyrocopter
Undying
UndyingJimmyCoff666
46% · 207 games54% · 155 games
DoomOscar
Doom
51% · 87 games
Primal BeastPiPi
Primal Beast
67% · 5 games
GrimstrokeGenek
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 53%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3