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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
No Limits Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
JimmyCoff666 · 11 games
73%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 7 games
57%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 4 games
75%
Sniper
Sniperoften banned
payk · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
100%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
payk · 3 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
0%

No Limits Gaming

Doom
Doomsignature
drakesh1t · 6 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
JP · 6 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Alone · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Zxca · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
Zxca · 5 games
80%
Snapfire
Snapfire
drakesh1t · 5 games
60%
Silencer
Silencer
CHAAANNN · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1003 picks · 689 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
655 picks · 481 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
600 picks · 959 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
552 picks · 433 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
531 picks · 359 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 380 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1188 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 377 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct40:20
Lava 50%No Limits Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava in 43:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenpayk
47% · 193 games50% · 237 games
Nature's ProphetJP
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death Prophetdrakeel
46% · 473 games53% · 94 games
Keeper of the LightAlone
Keeper of the Light
Disruptor
DisruptorJimmyCoff666
56% · 299 games53% · 128 games
Enigmadrakesh1t
Enigma
52% · 274 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
44% · 232 games
UndyingYor
Undying
Game 2prediction missed16:22
Lava 51%No Limits Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Lava — the game was taken by No Limits Gaming in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetpayk
50% · 292 games44% · 143 games
Shadow FiendAlone
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death Prophetdrakeel
47% · 366 games57% · 176 games
Dragon KnightJP
Dragon Knight
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
49% · 366 games51% · 124 games
Lycandrakesh1t
Lycan
52% · 231 game
EnchantressYor
Enchantress
51% · 350 games
TuskZxca
Tusk
Game 3prediction missed36:11
Lava 50%No Limits Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on No Limits Gaming — the game was taken by Lava in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpayk
50% · 192 games45% · 48 games
Anti-MageJP
Anti-Mage
Timbersaw
Timbersawdrakeel
55% · 192 games51% · 129 games
Dragon Knightdrakesh1t
Dragon Knight
Undying
UndyingJimmyCoff666
49% · 309 games65% · 28 games
Outworld DestroyerAlone
Outworld Destroyer
47% · 304 games
RubickZxca
Rubick
43% · 184 games
EnchantressYor
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 51%
Series resultLava 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3