PGL Wallachia Season 2. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavawin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SBSad BoySloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lava
Grimstroke
Genek · 6 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 4 games
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Gardick · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Frank · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
555k · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
Gardick · 3 games
Doomoften banned
Frank · 3 games
Sad BoyS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
418 picks · 315 bans
Hoodwink
416 picks · 441 bans
Weaver
393 picks · 828 bans
Tiny
391 picks · 885 bans
Phoenix
362 picks · 715 bans
Pangolier
361 picks · 515 bans
Clockwerk
350 picks · 484 bans
Dragon Knight
308 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Sad BoyS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lava 64%Sad BoyS 36%
The model gave 64% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Game 2prediction correct
Lava 64%Sad BoyS 36%
The model gave 64% on Lava — the game was taken by Lava.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 64%
Series resultLava 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2