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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Lavaloss 0:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Silkwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lava

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
33%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
payk · 2 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 1 game
0%
Alchemist
Alchemist
JP · 1 game
0%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Leostyle · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Demon · 1 game
0%

Silk

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Hermit · 4 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ShakaLord · 4 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
DaaD- · 3 games
0%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
DM · 3 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 2 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ShakaLord · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
d1smar · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
296 picks · 428 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 405 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
226 picks · 206 bans
46%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 629 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 201 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
220 picks · 111 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 306 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 42%
Hero pool strength50% Lava
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Lava
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Lava 57%Silk 43%
The model gave 57% on Lava — the game was taken by Silk.
Game 2prediction missed
Lava 57%Silk 43%
The model gave 57% on Lava — the game was taken by Silk.
Model check result
Model favoriteLava · 57%
Series resultSilk 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2