Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CDEC Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spiritoften banned
CatYou · 14 games
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 6 games
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
Lion
CatYou · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 5 games
CDEC Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
422 picks · 949 bans
Void Spirit
385 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 715 bans
Mars
328 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 304 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 218 bans
Earth Spirit
277 picks · 284 bans
Lion
275 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% CDEC Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% CDEC Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:15
LBZS 33%CDEC Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 43:02.
Game 2prediction missed32:12
LBZS 33%CDEC Gaming 67%
The model gave 67% on CDEC Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 30:07.
Model check result
Model favoriteCDEC Gaming · 67%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2