Moon Studio Spring Trophy · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 1:2series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crocodilewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 8 games
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 5 games
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 5 games
Centaur Warrunner
Irving · 3 games
Disruptor
xiaofu · 3 games
Medusaoften banned
MS · 3 games
Crocodile
Elder Titan
QYQX · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Sakata · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
QYQX · 2 games
Abaddon
QYQX · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Sakata · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
401 picks · 930 bans
Void Spirit
373 picks · 561 bans
Mars
325 picks · 598 bans
Death Prophet
291 picks · 565 bans
Earth Spirit
289 picks · 255 bans
Rubick
255 picks · 169 bans
Wraith King
241 picks · 403 bans
Phoenix
239 picks · 324 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Crocodile
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Crocodile
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteCrocodile · 78%
Series resultCrocodile 1:2
Series predictioncorrect