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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Dragonloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 14 games
57%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 9 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
xiaofu · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
CatYou · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 5 games
20%

Dragon

Mars
Marsoften banned
ghost · 3 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ghost · 3 games
0%
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ghost · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
斗圣 · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
433 picks · 989 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
413 picks · 574 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 710 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 592 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
312 picks · 308 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
306 picks · 287 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 204 bans
52%
Phoenix
Phoenix
256 picks · 414 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 46%
Hero pool strength52% Dragon
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Dragon
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
LBZS 53%Dragon 47%
The model gave 53% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 36:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerIrving
46% · 7 games52% · 59 games
Pangolierghost
Pangolier
Tusk
TuskCatYou
47% · 86 games51% · 67 games
LionAzrael
Lion
Abaddon
Abaddonxiaofu
50% · 33 games
Game 2prediction correct45:51
LBZS 51%Dragon 49%
The model gave 51% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 53:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand KingIrving
45% · 35 games38% · 54 games
Marsghost
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkCatYou
58% · 32 games57% · 42 games
LionAzrael
Lion
Snapfire
Snapfirexiaofu
54% · 29 games
Model check result
Model favoriteDragon · 50%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2