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Khaz Modan Cup Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 14 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
11%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 8 games
25%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
CatYou · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
CatYou · 7 games
29%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
CatYou · 6 games
17%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
33%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 9 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Karma丶 · 9 games
44%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubick
NARMAN · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Jing · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
MamangDaya · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 434 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
465 picks · 693 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
434 picks · 536 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
429 picks · 290 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 600 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
369 picks · 590 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
340 picks · 504 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 311 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 23%
Hero pool strength60% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:11
LBZS 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by LBZS in 29:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracShanks
45% · 125 games53% · 173 games
MarsEnryu
Mars
Tiny
TinyCatYou
51% · 253 games50% · 105 games
SnapfireChuaN
Snapfire
53% · 100 games
Death ProphetSe
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct23:39
LBZS 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void Spirit
Void SpiritShanks
42% · 52 games57% · 20 games
EnigmaEnryu
Enigma
Snapfire
SnapfireCatYou
46% · 98 games61% · 58 games
Nyx AssassinChuaN
Nyx Assassin
51% · 72 games
Ogre MagiSe
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed33:21
LBZS 46%Neon Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by LBZS in 41:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritShanks
37% · 59 games56% · 34 games
EnigmaEnryu
Enigma
Rubick
RubickCatYou
52% · 38 games55% · 58 games
ClockwerkChuaN
Clockwerk
67% · 5 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 52%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3