LBZS vs Sparking Arrow Gaming — prediction DPC2S—ЗК 1 · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

LBZSwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

No games played over 6 months.

Sparking Arrow Gaming

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Void Spirit

18 picks · 23 bans

50%

Puck

16 picks · 36 bans

55%

Monkey King

15 picks · 21 bans

53%

Mars

14 picks · 41 bans

56%

Earth Spirit

12 picks · 9 bans

56%

Crystal Maiden

11 picks · 0 bans

47%

Mirana

11 picks · 15 bans

53%

Tiny

11 picks · 8 bans

47%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength50% LBZS

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% LBZS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:7

LBZS 51%Sparking Arrow Gaming 49%

The model gave 51% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS in 21:50.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo