Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSloss 0:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team MagMawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 9 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 7 games
Night Stalkeroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Molasses · 6 games
Tusk
CatYou · 6 games
Mirana
CatYou · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Molasses · 4 games
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 4 games
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
438 picks · 268 bans
Mars
410 picks · 544 bans
Tiny
359 picks · 417 bans
Death Prophet
337 picks · 683 bans
Ember Spirit
301 picks · 443 bans
Sand King
298 picks · 391 bans
Weaver
273 picks · 322 bans
Pangolier
257 picks · 390 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Team MagMa
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total60% Team MagMa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:32
LBZS 40%Team MagMa 60%
The model gave 60% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 37:55.
Game 2prediction correct7:27
LBZS 40%Team MagMa 60%
The model gave 60% on Team MagMa — the game was taken by Team MagMa in 23:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam MagMa · 60%
Series resultTeam MagMa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2