Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionL2LeClassique 2.0loss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Monaspawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LeClassique 2.0
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
354 picks · 258 bans
Marci
314 picks · 558 bans
Tusk
284 picks · 207 bans
Undying
283 picks · 473 bans
Pangolier
250 picks · 440 bans
Primal Beast
237 picks · 521 bans
Shadow Fiend
219 picks · 302 bans
Crystal Maiden
211 picks · 108 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 68%
Hero pool strength50% LeClassique 2.0
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total80% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:27
LeClassique 2.0 20%Monaspa 80%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 20:51.
Game 2prediction correct26:47
LeClassique 2.0 20%Monaspa 80%
The model gave 80% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 36:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 80%
Series resultMonaspa 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2