Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacywin 2:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Fart Studiosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Fart Studios
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
344 picks · 273 bans
Marci
294 picks · 544 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 232 bans
Undying
270 picks · 458 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 476 bans
Primal Beast
228 picks · 531 bans
Shadow Fiend
215 picks · 315 bans
Crystal Maiden
207 picks · 117 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:40
Legacy 59%Fart Studios 41%
The model gave 59% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 44:28.
Game 2prediction missed35:22
Legacy 59%Fart Studios 41%
The model gave 59% on Legacy — the game was taken by Fart Studios in 38:23.
Game 3prediction correct16:42
Legacy 59%Fart Studios 41%
The model gave 59% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 40:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 59%
Series resultLegacy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3