Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Северная Америка. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLLegacywin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TiltedBoysloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
TiltedBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
352 picks · 323 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 279 bans
Marci
273 picks · 516 bans
Undying
250 picks · 459 bans
Pangolier
243 picks · 538 bans
Primal Beast
228 picks · 575 bans
Shadow Fiend
218 picks · 333 bans
Crystal Maiden
210 picks · 127 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:13
Legacy 54%TiltedBoys 46%
The model gave 54% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenBoris
Primal BeastEzekiel
SnapfireLil_Nick
Invokerred2
TinyGiant
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Legacy 57%TiltedBoys 43%
The model gave 57% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingBoris
BroodmotherEzekiel
LeshracLil_Nick
Puckred2
TuskGiant
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 62%
Series resultLegacy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2