DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Legacyloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LFLooking for Orgwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Legacy
Magnus
FCR · 4 games
Snapfire
Hyko · 3 games
Treant Protector
Gardick · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Clockwerk
Gardick · 2 games
Hoodwinkoften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Lunaoften banned
Lumière · 2 games
Marcioften banned
Hyko · 2 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 9 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 8 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Mnz · 7 games
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 7 games
Lunasignature
Mnz · 6 games
Enchantressoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
350 picks · 258 bans
Snapfire
336 picks · 277 bans
Pangolier
327 picks · 452 bans
Rubick
318 picks · 311 bans
Hoodwink
313 picks · 365 bans
Windranger
306 picks · 423 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 472 bans
Enchantress
299 picks · 513 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Legacy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Looking for Org
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
Legacy 38%Looking for Org 62%
The model gave 62% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistLumière
SvenMnz
BristlebackFCR
Centaur WarrunnerSacred
Shadow DemonGardick
EarthshakerDarkMago
TuskHyko
MiranaMatthew
48% · 186 games
EnchantressYadomi
Game 2prediction correct33:33
Legacy 37%Looking for Org 63%
The model gave 63% on Looking for Org — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 1:04:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaLumière
WeaverMnz
TechiesHyko
TinyDarkMago
MagnusFCR
UnderlordSacred
Shadow DemonGardick
TuskYadomi
46% · 240 games
RubickMatthew
Model check result
Model favoriteLooking for Org · 77%
Series resultLooking for Org 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2