Legacy vs South Team — prediction PWS2ЗК · Dota 2

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PGL Wallachia Season 2. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

Legacywin 2:0

series probability

51%49%

probability at match start · final 2:0

South Teamloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Legacy

No games played over 6 months.

South Team

Visageoften banned

Hermit · 4 games

50%

Chaos Knightoften banned

Argius · 3 games

67%

Brewmasteroften banned

Hermit · 2 games

50%

Broodmotheroften banned

Hermit · 2 games

Svenoften banned

JimmyCoff666 · 2 games

Underlordoften banned

Hermit · 2 games

50%

Alchemistoften banned

Argius · 1 game

Dawnbreaker

ArzenT · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

424 picks · 355 bans

52%

Hoodwink

411 picks · 451 bans

53%

Weaver

388 picks · 830 bans

54%

Tiny

380 picks · 867 bans

54%

Phoenix

365 picks · 752 bans

50%

Pangolier

349 picks · 519 bans

47%

Clockwerk

335 picks · 505 bans

57%

Ember Spirit

306 picks · 584 bans

51%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)43% vs 50%

Hero pool strength52% Legacy

Head-to-head0 – 1

Model total51% Legacy

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct33:15

Legacy 52%South Team 48%

The model gave 52% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 33:04.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo