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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lesnaya Bratvaloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MOUZwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lesnaya Bratva

No games played over 6 months.

MOUZ

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
NARMAN · 26 games
54%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
bengan · 26 games
46%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Ulnit · 24 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 22 games
59%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
bengan · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Ulnit · 21 game
43%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Ulnit · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
480 picks · 416 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
435 picks · 572 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
434 picks · 229 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
432 picks · 533 bans
50%
Phoenix
Phoenix
425 picks · 502 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
420 picks · 747 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 589 bans
46%
Tiny
Tiny
363 picks · 417 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:14
Lesnaya Bratva 22%MOUZ 78%
The model gave 78% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 34:24.
Game 2prediction correct24:29
Lesnaya Bratva 22%MOUZ 78%
The model gave 78% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 38:01.
Game 3prediction correct13:38
Lesnaya Bratva 22%MOUZ 78%
The model gave 78% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 36:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 78%
Series resultMOUZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3