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European Pro League Season 23 · BO3
result vs prediction
Lesnaya Bratvawin 2:1
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Lesnaya Bratva

No games played over 6 months.

Zero Tenacity

Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 21 game
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
LeBronDota · 20 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
jAMES · 20 games
40%
Lich
Lich
LeBronDota · 19 games
47%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 16 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nefrit · 15 games
33%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pablo · 15 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
Muerta
484 picks · 409 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
445 picks · 580 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
424 picks · 528 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
420 picks · 228 bans
55%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
413 picks · 712 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
405 picks · 472 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
371 picks · 597 bans
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
355 picks · 935 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 56%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:25
Lesnaya Bratva 26%Zero Tenacity 74%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:09.
Game 2prediction missed35:21
Lesnaya Bratva 26%Zero Tenacity 74%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 41:35.
Game 3prediction missed57:44
Lesnaya Bratva 26%Zero Tenacity 74%
The model gave 74% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Lesnaya Bratva in 1:05:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 74%
Series resultLesnaya Bratva 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3