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European Pro League Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
4Pirateswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 11 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Atoufix · 8 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
71%
Medusa
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 6 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 6 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
krol9ash · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Ankou · 5 games
40%

4Pirates

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 27 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
NattyNarwhal · 25 games
44%
Sniper
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
68%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Otaker · 18 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
ariel · 18 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 18 games
56%
Jakiro
Jakiro
PERDAN4IK · 17 games
59%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
мистер мораль · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 544 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
457 picks · 500 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
428 picks · 224 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
384 picks · 276 bans
46%
Tusk
Tusk
380 picks · 369 bans
48%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
365 picks · 807 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
352 picks · 530 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
352 picks · 521 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 73%
Hero pool strength54% 4Pirates
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:32
Level UP 33%4Pirates 67%
The model gave 67% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 35:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerrubikon155
58% · 78 games53% · 39 games
Drow RangerOtaker
Drow Ranger
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerkrol9ash
48% · 197 games44% · 320 games
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Pangolier
Earthshaker
EarthshakerMaTson
53% · 126 games56% · 107 games
Enigmaмистер мораль
Enigma
Batrider
BatriderAtoufix
44% · 294 games43% · 263 games
Dark Willowariel
Dark Willow
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPonlo
61% · 96 games48% · 62 games
UndyingPERDAN4IK
Undying
Game 2prediction correct7:26
Level UP 31%4Pirates 69%
The model gave 69% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by 4Pirates in 20:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckMaTson
50% · 237 games49% · 288 games
BeastmasterOtaker
Beastmaster
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerubikon155
41% · 251 game47% · 169 games
KunkkaNattyNarwhal
Kunkka
Underlord
Underlordkrol9ash
50% · 86 games52% · 71 game
Undyingмистер мораль
Undying
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanAtoufix
54% · 191 game65% · 28 games
DazzlePERDAN4IK
Dazzle
Disruptor
DisruptorPonlo
48% · 71 game52% · 280 games
Batriderariel
Batrider
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 80%
Series result4Pirates 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2