European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4Piratesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 12 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 11 games
Mirana
Ponlo · 11 games
4Pirates
Pangolieroften banned
мистер мораль · 34 games
Shadow Shamansignature
ariel · 33 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Otaker · 27 games
Snipersignature
NattyNarwhal · 23 games
Tuskoften banned
PERDAN4IK · 22 games
Beastmastersignature
Otaker · 19 games
Abaddonoften banned
мистер мораль · 17 games
Axesignature
мистер мораль · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 591 bans
Dark Willow
373 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
370 picks · 425 bans
Tiny
358 picks · 356 bans
Pangolier
337 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
325 picks · 694 bans
Puck
324 picks · 861 bans
Nature's Prophet
304 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% 4Pirates
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total77% 4Pirates
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:29
Level UP 35%4Pirates 65%
The model gave 65% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealerrubikon155
MarciOtaker
Primal BeastMaTson
PangolierNattyNarwhal
Dark SeerPalantimos
Enigmaмистер мораль
TinyAtoufix
Warlockariel
SilencerPonlo
TuskPERDAN4IK
Game 2prediction missed34:8
Level UP 35%4Pirates 65%
The model gave 65% on 4Pirates — the game was taken by Level UP in 24:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlordrubikon155
UrsaOtaker
Primal BeastMaTson
Timbersawмистер мораль
Dark SeerPalantimos
LeshracNattyNarwhal
TuskAtoufix
Naga SirenPERDAN4IK
SilencerPonlo
Dark Willowariel
Model check result
Model favorite4Pirates · 77%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2