European Pro League Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aim Possibleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knight
MaTson · 17 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 14 games
Ringmastersignature
Atoufix · 12 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 11 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 10 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Palantimos · 10 games
Aim Possible
Warlock
Aidar · 6 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
chempik · 5 games
Dazzleoften banned
Aidar · 4 games
Disruptor
Htrd · 3 games
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Htrd · 2 games
Bane
Garbat1y · 2 games
Jakiro
Aidar · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
582 picks · 589 bans
Tusk
373 picks · 419 bans
Tiny
371 picks · 372 bans
Dark Willow
366 picks · 217 bans
Pangolier
343 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
334 picks · 704 bans
Puck
326 picks · 839 bans
Nature's Prophet
312 picks · 636 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total69% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:27
Level UP 57%Aim Possible 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladerubikon155
ClockwerkGarbat1y
PuckMaTson
UndyingPalantimos
Naga SirenPonlo
PugnaAtoufix
Game 2prediction correct39:23
Level UP 63%Aim Possible 37%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 31:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarubikon155
Ancient ApparitionGarbat1y
Shadow FiendMaTson
Night StalkerPalantimos
BatriderAtoufix
BanePonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 69%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2