Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Восточная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Comebackwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
Comeback
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
343 picks · 300 bans
Tusk
278 picks · 251 bans
Marci
273 picks · 523 bans
Undying
253 picks · 450 bans
Pangolier
237 picks · 503 bans
Primal Beast
221 picks · 546 bans
Shadow Fiend
214 picks · 317 bans
Crystal Maiden
203 picks · 116 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:56
Level UP 61%Comeback 39%
The model gave 61% on Level UP — the game was taken by Comeback in 40:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 61%
Series resultComeback 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1