DreamLeague Season 28. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DOGSENTloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
Primal Beastsignature
MaTson · 10 games
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 10 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
MaTson · 9 games
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 9 games
DOGSENT
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
564 picks · 646 bans
Tusk
505 picks · 327 bans
Dragon Knight
490 picks · 683 bans
Snapfire
450 picks · 166 bans
Centaur Warrunner
445 picks · 530 bans
Hoodwink
426 picks · 203 bans
Mars
391 picks · 526 bans
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 500 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% DOGSENT
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:20
Level UP 62%DOGSENT 38%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:53.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 62%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1