Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Eex-Monaspaloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 7 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 7 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 7 games
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
swedenstrong · 5 games
Doomoften banned
swedenstrong · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
ex-Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
743 picks · 590 bans
Disruptor
609 picks · 528 bans
Doom
553 picks · 1097 bans
Beastmaster
551 picks · 1304 bans
Techies
490 picks · 552 bans
Pangolier
469 picks · 951 bans
Ember Spirit
462 picks · 1125 bans
Enchantress
451 picks · 644 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:9
Level UP 52%ex-Monaspa 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:10.
Game 2prediction missed24:28
Level UP 52%ex-Monaspa 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by ex-Monaspa in 1:04:28.
Game 3prediction correct35:23
Level UP 52%ex-Monaspa 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:03:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 52%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3