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Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
0%
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Sand King
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
0%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
0%

EXTREMUM

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 18 games
78%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
41%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Shachlo · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
G · 10 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
404 picks · 1014 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 599 bans
55%
Lion
Lion
357 picks · 183 bans
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
355 picks · 362 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
332 picks · 517 bans
48%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
322 picks · 697 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
310 picks · 227 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
257 picks · 286 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 33%
Hero pool strength59% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total66% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:32
Level UP 66%EXTREMUM 34%
The model gave 66% on Level UP — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 35:26.
Game 2prediction missed40:33
Level UP 66%EXTREMUM 34%
The model gave 66% on Level UP — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 49:46.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 66%
Series resultEXTREMUM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2