Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand Kingoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Snapfire
Bor@nija · 1 game
Hellbear Smashers
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 6 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 6 games
Crystal Maiden
tOfu · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ace · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Stormstormer · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Gilgir · 4 games
Earthshaker
Gilgir · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 276 bans
Puck
154 picks · 355 bans
Earth Spirit
142 picks · 116 bans
Void Spirit
134 picks · 194 bans
Phoenix
120 picks · 136 bans
Keeper of the Light
105 picks · 192 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 357 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)20% vs 63%
Hero pool strength67% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:27
Level UP 30%Hellbear Smashers 70%
The model gave 70% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 22:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritBor@nija
Phantom AssassinAce
Dark SeerMastermind
PuckStormstormer
45% · 7 games
EnigmaMISERY
22% · 5 games
OracletOfu
57% · 3 games
EarthshakerGilgir
Game 2prediction correct10:39
Level UP 28%Hellbear Smashers 72%
The model gave 72% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 19:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritBor@nija
InvokerStormstormer
SlardarMastermind
Ember SpiritAce
little data
ViperMISERY
little data
Witch DoctortOfu
48% · 12 games
Earth SpiritGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 85%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2