Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
IVYloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 6 games
Doomoften banned
OwnedMe · 5 games
IVY
Mirana
Qupe · 17 games
Leshracoften banned
pio65 · 15 games
Snapfire
Qupe · 10 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 9 games
Tiny
Qupe · 9 games
Rubick
Qupe · 8 games
Spirit Breakeroften banned
rue · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
699 picks · 481 bans
Techies
588 picks · 635 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1108 bans
Disruptor
542 picks · 501 bans
Beastmaster
529 picks · 1228 bans
Ember Spirit
476 picks · 1047 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 678 bans
Pangolier
460 picks · 918 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 38%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
Level UP 60%IVY 40%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Chaos KnightOtaker
MorphlingLorenof
TimbersawMikSa`
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Storm SpiritMoonlight
UndyingMiLAN
Techiesrue
Lionswedenstrong
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Game 2prediction missed31:33
Level UP 64%IVY 36%
The model gave 64% on Level UP — the game was taken by IVY in 53:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenDaxak
TerrorbladeOtaker
Storm SpiritLorenof
TimbersawMikSa`
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
WindrangerMoonlight
TidehunterOwnedMe
Shadow Demonrue
TechiesMiLAN
SilencerFlash
Game 3prediction correct40:4
Level UP 65%IVY 35%
The model gave 65% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 27:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDaxak
Legion CommanderMikSa`
WindrangerLorenof
AbaddonOtaker
Primal BeastOwnedMe
ViperMoonlight
Snapfireswedenstrong
UndyingFlash
TechiesMiLAN
Rubickrue
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 72%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3