CCT Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
JustBetterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 6 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Jeezy · 5 games
Hoodwink
Delight · 4 games
Linaoften banned
Bor@nija · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
Panda · 4 games
JustBetter
Dragon Knightoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Astral · 9 games
Grimstroke
Astral · 7 games
Luna
Focus · 7 games
Phoenixoften banned
Astral · 7 games
Windranger
Focus · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 6 games
Puckoften banned
ThuG · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
423 picks · 614 bans
Gyrocopter
371 picks · 390 bans
Crystal Maiden
368 picks · 141 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 469 bans
Dark Willow
321 picks · 342 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 583 bans
Rubick
314 picks · 161 bans
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 646 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% JustBetter
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total53% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:36
Level UP 53%JustBetter 47%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by JustBetter in 45:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendCoblackk
MorphlingFocus
Timbersawififall
ZeusThuG
Shadow DemonJeezy
Chaos KnightSkyLark
51% · 154 games
BatriderAstral
52% · 112 games
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction missed11:24
Level UP 52%JustBetter 48%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by JustBetter in 30:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doomififall
UrsaFocus
Chaos KnightCoblackk
UnderlordSkyLark
PugnaJeezy
Storm SpiritThuG
40% · 104 games
PhoenixAstral
46% · 14 games
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 53%
Series resultJustBetter 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2