Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KZ TEAMloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
No games played over 6 months.
KZ TEAM
Primal Beastsignature
dEsire · 26 games
Snapfire
SsaSpartan · 25 games
Rubick
dEsire · 22 games
Death Prophetoften banned
W1sh- · 19 games
Earthshaker
dEsire · 18 games
Tinysignature
W1sh- · 15 games
Undyingsignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
771 picks · 603 bans
Disruptor
548 picks · 452 bans
Tiny
437 picks · 382 bans
Beastmaster
417 picks · 975 bans
Nature's Prophet
401 picks · 680 bans
Undying
399 picks · 594 bans
Ember Spirit
392 picks · 916 bans
Mirana
389 picks · 210 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% KZ TEAM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:8
Level UP 74%KZ TEAM 26%
The model gave 74% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 44:33.
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Level UP 74%KZ TEAM 26%
The model gave 74% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 30:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 74%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2