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Pinnacle: 25 Year Anniversary Show · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KZ TEAMloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
69%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
83%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 12 games
67%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 12 games
58%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 12 games
58%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Lorenof · 11 games
82%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
swedenstrong · 10 games
40%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
OwnedMe · 9 games
78%

KZ TEAM

Rubick
Rubick
dEsire · 17 games
47%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
SsaSpartan · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
SsaSpartan · 14 games
43%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
SkyLark · 12 games
58%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
W1sh- · 11 games
64%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
271 picks · 356 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
216 picks · 483 bans
59%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 303 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
206 picks · 313 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
198 picks · 407 bans
59%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 355 bans
51%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
192 picks · 172 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Level UP
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total64% KZ TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:8
Level UP 42%KZ TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Level UP in 27:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
45% · 60 games53% · 52 games
LifestealerLowskill
Lifestealer
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerDavai
47% · 101 game55% · 50 games
Dark SeerSkyLark
Dark Seer
Puck
PuckStojkov
50% · 119 games54% · 117 games
TinyW1sh-
Tiny
Dark Willow
Dark WillowdEsire
48% · 103 games60% · 96 games
PugnaSsaSpartan
Pugna
40% · 68 games
WeaverAstral
Weaver
Game 2prediction correct47:39
Level UP 44%KZ TEAM 56%
The model gave 56% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by KZ TEAM in 55:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
55% · 50 games51% · 116 games
TerrorbladeLowskill
Terrorblade
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightStojkov
52% · 118 games52% · 38 games
ZeusW1sh-
Zeus
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
55% · 83 games43% · 85 games
Centaur WarrunnerSkyLark
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskdEsire
47% · 283 games46% · 72 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
51% · 223 games
Treant ProtectorSsaSpartan
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed37:11
Level UP 43%KZ TEAM 57%
The model gave 57% on KZ TEAM — the game was taken by Level UP in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFocus
51% · 41 game52% · 47 games
LunaLowskill
Luna
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinStojkov
43% · 127 games48% · 147 games
Death ProphetW1sh-
Death Prophet
Broodmother
BroodmotherDavai
50% · 100 games52% · 94 games
LycanSkyLark
Lycan
Tusk
TuskdEsire
51% · 304 games56% · 222 games
Nature's ProphetSsaSpartan
Nature's Prophet
50% · 62 games
Shadow DemonAstral
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteKZ TEAM · 64%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3