European Pro League Season 18 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Tinyoften banned
dEsire · 11 games
Luna
Focus · 10 games
Tusk
dEsire · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Bor@nija · 8 games
Linaoften banned
Stojkov · 8 games
Phoenix
Delight · 7 games
Rubick
Jeezy · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Taiga · 6 games
MOUZ
Shadow Demonsignature
bengan · 24 games
Gyrocopter
Ulnit · 23 games
Tinysignature
NARMAN · 21 game
Crystal Maidensignature
bengan · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Force · 20 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 16 games
Sven
Ulnit · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
470 picks · 208 bans
Tiny
424 picks · 584 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 746 bans
Rubick
386 picks · 155 bans
Centaur Warrunner
385 picks · 536 bans
Pangolier
357 picks · 685 bans
Gyrocopter
339 picks · 298 bans
Mars
334 picks · 550 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% MOUZ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:51
Level UP 25%MOUZ 75%
The model gave 75% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TinyBor@nija
GyrocopterUlnit
RikiCoblackk
Keeper of the LightSupream^
LeshracJeezy
Primal BeastForce
Crystal MaidenStoic
Bounty HunterNARMAN
53% · 158 games
Shadow Demonbengan
Game 2prediction correct25:39
Level UP 23%MOUZ 77%
The model gave 77% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 32:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzCoblackk
Chaos KnightUlnit
Void SpiritBor@nija
Dragon KnightSupream^
HoodwinkJeezy
BrewmasterForce
DisruptorStoic
Venomancerbengan
61% · 137 games
Shadow DemonNARMAN
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 89%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2