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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
77%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 11 games
82%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Daxak · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techies
MiLAN · 9 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 27 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
so bad · 13 games
85%
Doom
Doomsignature
Corrupted · 13 games
62%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
v1olent- · 13 games
85%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Corrupted · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Hellscream · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
v1olent- · 11 games
64%
Techies
Techies
Hellscream · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
315 picks · 154 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
234 picks · 297 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 419 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
198 picks · 410 bans
48%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
197 picks · 113 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
195 picks · 285 bans
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seer
191 picks · 362 bans
52%
Doom
Doom
178 picks · 325 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total62% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:29
Level UP 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 58:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingV-Tune
50% · 12 games48% · 27 games
MuertaUlnit
Muerta
Razor
RazorLorenof
48% · 44 games58% · 97 games
Queen of PainMalr1ne
Queen of Pain
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderOwnedMe
47% · 54 games53% · 50 games
BrewmasterXibbe
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
48% · 328 games52% · 51 game
WarlockPanto
Warlock
Phoenix
PhoenixMiLAN
42% · 100 games53% · 313 games
TuskHellscream
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed35:8
Level UP 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Level UP in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenV-Tune
53% · 108 games54% · 140 games
MedusaUlnit
Medusa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
43% · 181 game46% · 94 games
DawnbreakerXibbe
Dawnbreaker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterOwnedMe
48% · 58 games53% · 108 games
Earth SpiritMalr1ne
Earth Spirit
Rubick
Rubickswedenstrong
44% · 508 games59% · 263 games
Nature's ProphetHellscream
Nature's Prophet
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionMiLAN
58% · 30 games46% · 280 games
EnchantressPanto
Enchantress
Game 3prediction correct14:49
Level UP 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 51:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaLorenof
54% · 45 games50% · 77 games
BloodseekerUlnit
Bloodseeker
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
45% · 34 games40% · 37 games
RazorMalr1ne
Razor
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOwnedMe
61% · 76 games50% · 105 games
TidehunterXibbe
Tidehunter
Tusk
Tuskswedenstrong
49% · 125 games45% · 14 games
MuertaHellscream
Muerta
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMiLAN
54% · 25 games42% · 72 games
LichPanto
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 62%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3