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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 7 games
86%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 6 games
83%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
swedenstrong · 5 games
80%
Doom
Doomoften banned
OwnedMe · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
0%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
swedenstrong · 4 games
75%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 4 games
75%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 4 games
75%

Nigma Galaxy

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
GH · 12 games
42%
Snapfire
Snapfire
KuroKy · 11 games
36%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ATF · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
44%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 9 games
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
25%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
752 picks · 613 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
613 picks · 533 bans
54%
Doom
Doom
552 picks · 1088 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
549 picks · 1334 bans
58%
Techies
Techies
477 picks · 528 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
471 picks · 961 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
464 picks · 1157 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
450 picks · 641 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)79% vs 27%
Hero pool strength64% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:34
Level UP 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on Level UP — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 39:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
46% · 244 games45% · 164 games
MorphlingYuma
Morphling
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDaxak
54% · 103 games49% · 128 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Tidehunter
TidehunterOwnedMe
46% · 77 games56% · 201 game
DisruptorKuroKy
Disruptor
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakerswedenstrong
51% · 103 games52% · 93 games
PugnaGH
Pugna
Venomancer
VenomancerMiLAN
50% · 59 games
Game 2prediction correct42:17
Level UP 59%Nigma Galaxy 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
55% · 79 games38% · 47 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Slark
SlarkDaxak
61% · 124 games50% · 129 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOwnedMe
59% · 86 games46% · 387 games
RubickGH
Rubick
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
46% · 78 games47% · 22 games
Witch DoctorKuroKy
Witch Doctor
Undying
UndyingMiLAN
51% · 218 games
Game 3prediction correct39:11
Level UP 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDaxak
53% · 76 games47% · 187 games
DoomMinD_ContRoL
Doom
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
56% · 67 games59% · 31 game
Anti-MageYuma
Anti-Mage
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOwnedMe
48% · 139 games50% · 66 games
Shadow DemonGH
Shadow Demon
Venomancer
VenomancerMiLAN
48% · 65 games50% · 162 games
SilencerKuroKy
Silencer
Pugna
Pugnaswedenstrong
45% · 99 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 60%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3