Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 1:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
Techiessignature
MiLAN · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 6 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 6 games
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 6 games
Nigma Galaxy
Disruptor
GH · 15 games
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 15 games
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 13 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
SumaiL · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
690 picks · 477 bans
Techies
611 picks · 643 bans
Doom
568 picks · 1112 bans
Disruptor
521 picks · 493 bans
Beastmaster
516 picks · 1235 bans
Ember Spirit
483 picks · 1050 bans
Enchantress
459 picks · 681 bans
Pangolier
452 picks · 922 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 38%
Hero pool strength60% Level UP
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Level UP 51%Nigma Galaxy 49%
The model gave 51% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 59:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenDaxak
BloodseekerYuma
WindrangerLorenof
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Primal BeastOwnedMe
TechiesGH
Batriderswedenstrong
UndyingKuroKy
MiranaMiLAN
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 52%
Series resultLevel UP 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1