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RES Regional Champions: Belgrade · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
27%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 8 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Jeezy · 7 games
29%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ififall · 6 games
17%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
MaTson · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
MaTson · 6 games
33%

OG

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ari · 24 games
54%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Ari · 22 games
59%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Wisper · 17 games
65%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
bzm · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bzm · 15 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wisper · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
Pangolier
341 picks · 459 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 293 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
323 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
323 picks · 448 bans
53%
Enchantress
Enchantress
313 picks · 566 bans
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
282 picks · 461 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
265 picks · 373 bans
52%
Sand King
Sand King
257 picks · 763 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 62%
Hero pool strength60% OG
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total86% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:34
Level UP 27%OG 73%
The model gave 73% on OG — the game was taken by Level UP in 51:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaFocus
47% · 91 game46% · 141 game
Shadow FiendShad
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyW1sh-
55% · 329 games46% · 265 games
MarsWisper
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWuiter
54% · 162 games46% · 65 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightJeezy
50% · 102 games56% · 326 games
HoodwinkAri
Hoodwink
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSsaSpartan
49% · 246 games51% · 133 games
Naga SirenxNova
Naga Siren
Game 2prediction correct23:38
Level UP 27%OG 73%
The model gave 73% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 1:11:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaFocus
53% · 298 games54% · 267 games
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Void Spirit
Void SpiritW1sh-
45% · 105 games51% · 253 games
GyrocopterShad
Gyrocopter
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWuiter
51% · 114 games48% · 106 games
MuertaAri
Muerta
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
47% · 233 games47% · 161 game
InvokerNine
Invoker
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
48% · 206 games56% · 169 games
Naga SirenxNova
Naga Siren
Game 3prediction correct9:32
Level UP 27%OG 73%
The model gave 73% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 30:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckW1sh-
49% · 306 games52% · 273 games
LunaShad
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendFocus
51% · 119 games53% · 221 game
TimbersawWisper
Timbersaw
Dark Seer
Dark SeerWuiter
55% · 148 games48% · 60 games
Night StalkerNine
Night Stalker
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
50% · 261 game48% · 309 games
BatriderAri
Batrider
Tusk
TuskSsaSpartan
43% · 257 games52% · 228 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 86%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3