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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Западная Европа. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Old Gwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
89%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 8 games
75%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 7 games
71%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
MiLAN · 6 games
83%
Doom
Doomoften banned
OwnedMe · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 5 games
20%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 5 games
60%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
swedenstrong · 5 games
60%

Old G

Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
No[o]ne · 16 games
63%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
laise · 14 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
swedenstrong · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
xsvampire · 13 games
54%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Shigetsu · 12 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
xsvampire · 11 games
64%
Doom
Doomoften banned
No[o]ne · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
696 picks · 486 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
566 picks · 613 bans
55%
Doom
Doom
565 picks · 1098 bans
53%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 502 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
532 picks · 1218 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
466 picks · 1035 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
459 picks · 671 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
457 picks · 914 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 42%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
Level UP 62%Old G 38%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenDaxak
56% · 143 games51% · 153 games
Monkey KingNo[o]ne
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
55% · 104 games42% · 413 games
RubickTopson
Rubick
Primal Beast
Primal BeastOwnedMe
56% · 222 games41% · 56 games
Legion CommanderCeb
Legion Commander
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunterswedenstrong
53% · 79 games47% · 194 games
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesMiLAN
52% · 268 games
Game 2prediction missed12:25
Level UP 62%Old G 38%
The model gave 62% on Level UP — the game was taken by Old G in 47:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
50% · 280 games49% · 220 games
MorphlingNo[o]ne
Morphling
Slark
SlarkDaxak
56% · 144 games49% · 347 games
PangolierTopson
Pangolier
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOwnedMe
51% · 68 games43% · 94 games
PhoenixCeb
Phoenix
Medusa
MedusaMiLAN
57% · 92 games43% · 60 games
Nyx AssassinRodjER
Nyx Assassin
Techies
Techiesswedenstrong
53% · 137 games
Game 3prediction missed33:31
Level UP 60%Old G 40%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Old G in 48:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerDaxak
47% · 115 games46% · 117 games
JuggernautNo[o]ne
Juggernaut
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainLorenof
50% · 54 games58% · 104 games
VenomancerCeb
Venomancer
Mars
MarsOwnedMe
49% · 96 games51% · 355 games
SnapfireTopson
Snapfire
Batrider
Batriderswedenstrong
52% · 213 games48% · 145 games
Spirit BreakerRodjER
Spirit Breaker
Undying
UndyingMiLAN
50% · 243 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 68%
Series resultOld G 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3